As the year comes to a close, businesses everywhere are planning their budgets for 2026. One area that often challenges even the most seasoned finance teams is logistics costs. Shipping rates fluctuate, surcharges appear unexpectedly, and global market conditions can change overnight. Without careful planning, your shipping budget can quickly get derailed.
The good news? With a strategic approach, businesses can forecast logistics costs accurately, creating a stable and reliable budget for the new year.
The Volatility Factor
Logistics costs are inherently volatile, influenced by factors that often feel out of a company’s control:
- Fluctuating Fuel Prices: Fuel surcharges change weekly, impacting every shipment.
- Global Freight Capacity Shortages: Limited trucking and container availability can drive rates up, especially during peak seasons.
- Carrier Rate Adjustments: Changes in labor costs, regulatory compliance, and demand can result in unexpected adjustments to shipping rates.
Recognizing these pressures is the first step toward creating a budget that can withstand market fluctuations.
Three Keys to Accurate Forecasting
- Analyze Historical Data
Start by reviewing your shipping data from the past year. Compare actual costs vs. quoted rates, paying attention to hidden surcharges and accessorial fees. This historical insight helps you anticipate recurring costs and identify areas where forecasting can be improved.
- Plan for Growth and Strategy
Your logistics budget should reflect more than just last year’s volume. Consider:
- New product lines or SKUs that may require additional handling or storage.
- Expanded warehousing or fulfillment needs to support increased demand.
- International shipping growth, including customs, duties, tariffs, and carrier costs.
Factoring in growth ensures that your budget isn’t caught off guard by expanding operational demands.
- Factor in Flexibility
No matter how well you plan, unexpected events can arise, from weather disruptions to sudden capacity shortages. Allocating a portion of your budget for contingencies provides a safety net, ensuring your operations remain resilient without compromising service or profitability.
The NEMA Advantage
With NEMA’s expertise, businesses gain confidence that their 2026 logistics budget is realistic, efficient, and ready to support growth.
Accurate logistics forecasting isn’t about predicting every fluctuation; it’s about building a budget that accounts for volatility, growth, and contingencies. By analyzing historical data, planning strategically, and working with a trusted partner like NEMA, businesses can start 2026 with a clear, actionable shipping budget that keeps costs under control and operations running smoothly.
Plan smart. Budget accurately. Partner with NEMA for a logistics strategy that supports success in 2026.
